托您的福

週六早上的托福聽說大班其中一個主題是關於「繁榮與衰退」。最近有個教育機構公布一個我覺得關於這個題目而且很有意思的影片。大家可以參考一下。

這個影片的歌詞有很多經濟學的專有名詞。但不必害怕，我們的托福演講不會有那麼多！而且，我們有這段影片的歌詞和中譯，可以幫助我們好好了解這些專有名詞在說些什麼。

（以下的中譯是根據這裡和這裡調整而來的）

Fear the boom and bust
對漲跌的恐懼

【Receptionist】 Lord Keynes, welcome, Sir. It’s a pleasure.
【櫃台小姐】凱因斯先生，歡迎光臨，這是我的榮幸

[Keynes] The pleasure’s all mine.
【凱因斯】也是我的榮幸

【Receptionist】Your agenda.
【櫃台小姐】這是您的議程

[Keynes] That won’t be necessary. I am the agenda.
【凱因斯】那沒有必要，我本身就是議程

[Keynes] Tell them I’ve arrived.
【凱因斯】告訴他們我到了

[Hayak] And them tell them I’ve arrived.
【海耶克】也請告訴他們我到了

【Receptionist】And, your name… is…?
【櫃台小姐】您的名字是…？

[Hayak] Hayak. F.A. Hayak. With an H.
【海耶克】海耶克，F.A.海耶克。以H 開頭

Keynes, The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money
凱因斯，《就業、利息與貨幣的一般理論》

[Keynes] Freddie?
【凱因斯】Freddie？

[Hayak] Yep.
【海耶克】我就是

[Keynes] Keynes.
【凱因斯】我是Keynes

[Keynes] Hey, listen. Party at the Fed.
【凱因斯】走吧！聯準會那兒有派對！

[Hayak] Already!?
【海耶克】已經有了嗎？

[Keynes] 20 minutes. Lobby.
【凱因斯】20分鐘後，在大廳見

[Keynes] John Maynard Keynes
【凱因斯】約翰‧梅納德‧凱因斯

[Hayak] F.A. Hayak
【海耶克】弗里德里希‧海耶克

[Keynes] Yeah, we’re opposed.
【凱因斯】對，我們是敵對的

[Hayak] We oppose each other, philosophically
【海耶克】我們在原則上互相敵對

[Keynes] In the same studio
【凱因斯】在同一間錄音室

We’ve been going back and forth for a century
我們這樣針鋒相對已經一世紀

[Keynes] I want to steer markets,
【凱因斯】我要引導市場，

[Hayak] I want them set free
【海耶克】我想讓市場自由，

There’s a boom and bust cycle and good reason to fear it
經濟總是有漲有跌，我們當然會畏懼

[Hayak] Blame low interest rates.
【海耶克】問題是在低利率

[Keynes] No… it’s the animal spirits
不…那是動物本能

【Keynes Sings:】
【 凱因斯 唱：】
John Maynard Keynes, wrote the book on modern macro
約翰•梅納德•凱因斯，撰寫了現代總體經濟學

The man you need when the economy’s off track, 【whoa】
他是一個當經濟脫軌時你需要的人，【哇～】

Depression, recession now your question’s in session
經濟蕭條，經濟衰退，現在你問問題的時間到了

Have a seat and I’ll school you in one simple lesson
挑個位子坐，我將簡單地給你上一堂課

BOOM, 1929 the big crash
嘣，1929年的市場崩盤

We didn’t bounce back—economy’s in the trash
我們看不到反彈——經濟情况一塌糊塗

Persistent unemployment, the result of sticky wages
持續的失業、是因為僵固的薪資

Waiting for recovery? Seriously? That’s outrageous!
坐等經濟復甦？有沒有搞錯？完全不能接受！

I had a real plan any fool can understand
我有一個連傻瓜都能明白的計劃

The advice, real simple—boost aggregate demand!
我的意見，非常簡單——提高總合需求

C, I, G, all together gets to Y
C（消費）、I（投資)、G（政府支出）這些加在一起就會得到Y（經濟總量）

Keep that total growing, watch the economy fly
只要確保總量增加，就等著看經濟起飛吧！

We’ve been going back and forth for a century
我們這樣針鋒相對已經一世紀

[Keynes] I want to steer markets,
【凱因斯】我要引導市場，

[Hayak] I want them set free
【海耶克】我想讓市場自由，

There’s a boom and bust cycle and good reason to fear it
經濟總是有漲有跌，我們當然會畏懼

[Hayak] Blame low interest rates.
【海耶克】問題是在低利率

[Keynes] No… it’s the animal spirits
【凱因斯】不…那是動物本能

You see it’s all about spending, hear the register cha-ching
你看，這些都是關於支出，聽聽看收銀機的聲音吧

Circular flow, the dough is everything
讓現金流動，金錢就是一切

So if that flow is getting low, doesn’t matter the reason
所以如果流動性太低，什麼原因都不重要

We need more government spending, now it’s stimulus season
我們需要更多的政府支出，現在是刺激景氣的時候了

So forget about saving, get it straight out of your head
所以不要再管什麼存錢，把這個想法扔出你的腦袋

Like I said, in the long run—we’re all dead
就像我說的，從長期看來——我們都將不復存在

Savings is destruction, that’s the paradox of thrift
儲蓄只有毀滅作用，這就是節儉的矛盾

Don’t keep money in your pocket, or that growth will never lift…
不要把錢留在你的口袋，否則經濟成長就不能實現

because…
因為…

Business is driven by the animal spirits
商業活動本來就是用動物本能在操控

The bull and the bear, and there’s reason to fear its
牛市和熊市交替，我們有理由恐懼

Effects on capital investment, income and growth
牠對資本投資，收入和成長的影響

That’s why the state should fill the gap with stimulus both…
這就是為什麼國家應該用經濟刺激填補這個空缺，

The monetary and the fiscal, they’re equally correct
財政和貨幣刺激應該雙管齊下，他們都同樣正確

Public works, digging ditches, war has the same effect
公共建設，開河挖溝，發動戰爭都有同樣的效果

Even a broken window helps the glass man have some wealth
甚至打破一扇窗戶也能給玻璃匠帶來財富

The multiplier driving higher the economy’s health
乘數效應會帶領整個經濟走向健康

And if the Central Bank’s interest rate policy tanks
但如果中央銀行持續使用低利率政策

A liquidity trap, that new money’s stuck in the banks!
就會造成流動性陷阱，新的錢會卡在銀行裡

Deficits could be the cure, you been looking for
赤字將被填平，這就是你所追求的

Let the spending soar, now that you know the score
就讓支出墊高吧，因為你了解將會發生什麼

My General Theory’s made quite an impression
我的就業、利息與貨幣的一般理論有著相當程度的影響

【a revolution】 I transformed the econ profession
【革命性的】我改變了經濟的專業

You know me, modesty, still I’m taking a bow
你們都認識我，謙虛的我，我會向諸位鞠躬

Say it loud, and say it proud, we’re all Keynesians now
大聲說，自豪地說，我們現在都信奉凱因斯學派

We’ve been going back and forth for a century
我們這樣針鋒相對已經一世紀

[Keynes] I want to steer markets,
【凱因斯】我要引導市場，

[Hayak] I want them set free
【海耶克】我想讓市場自由，

There’s a boom and bust cycle and good reason to fear it
經濟總是有漲有跌，我們當然會畏懼

[Keynes] I made my case, Freddie H
【凱因斯】我已說明了我的論點，Freddie H

Listen up , Can you hear it?
你有聽進去嗎？

Hayek sings:
【海耶克 唱：】
I’ll begin in broad strokes, just like my friend Keynes
就像我的朋友凱因斯所述，我也從大處說起，

His theory conceals the mechanics of change,
他的理論隱匿了一些技術性的改變

That simple equation, too much aggregation
那個簡單的方程式，把太多的東西加總在一起

Ignores human action and motivation
而忽略了人們的行為與動機

And yet it continues as a justification
但是它還繼續為一些錯誤的政策提供支持

For bailouts and payoffs by pols with machinations
例如，那些“緊急紓困”以及那些為政客的陰謀而買的單

You provide them with cover to sell us a free lunch
你為他們提供掩護，提供了一個不勞而獲的機會

Then all that we’re left with is debt, and a bunch
這只會留給我們一大堆的債務

If you’re living high on that cheap credit hog
如果你以廉價的信用來擁有富足的生活

Don’t look for cure from the hair of the dog
就不要試圖用同樣的方法來解決當下的困局

Real savings come first if you want to invest
如果你想要投資，首先要做實質的儲蓄

The market coordinates time with interest
市場會用利率及時間來進行調整

Your focus on spending is pushing on thread
如果你只專注在支出，那將會走向毀滅之路

In the long run, my friend, it’s your theory that’s dead
在長期看來，我的朋友，是你的學說將不復存在

So sorry there, buddy, if that sounds like invective
所以抱歉了，我的朋友，如果它聽起來太過惡毒

Prepared to get schooled in my Austrian perspective
準備來一場我的奧地利學派的學術洗禮吧

We’ve been going back and forth for a century
我們這樣針鋒相對已經一世紀

[Keynes] I want to steer markets,
【凱因斯】我要引導市場，

[Hayak] I want them set free
【海耶克】我想讓市場自由，

There’s a boom and bust cycle and good reason to fear it
經濟總是有漲有跌，我們當然會畏懼

[Hayak] Blame low interest rates.
【海耶克】問題是在低利率

[Keynes] No… it’s the animal spirits
不…那是動物本能

The place you should study isn’t the bust
我們需要學習的不是破產

It’s the boom that should make you feel leery, that’s the thrust
而是景氣急速擴張，你應該要更感到小心翼翼，這才是重點

Of my theory, the capital structure is key.
在我的理論裡，資本結構是個關鍵

Malinvestments wreck the economy
不當的投資是會破壞整個經濟體

The boom gets started with an expansion of credit
景氣急速擴張始於信用的擴張

The Fed sets rates low, are you starting to get it?
聯準會把利率設的太低了，你開始了解了嗎？

That new money is confused for real loanable funds
這些新增的鈔票讓人錯以為它們是實際可貸的資金

But it’s just inflation that’s driving the ones
但其實那只不過是通貨膨脹而已

Who invest in new projects like housing construction
而通膨讓人們去投資建築之類的項目

The boom plants the seeds for its future destruction
景氣急速擴張替未來的毀滅種下了種子

The savings aren’t real, consumption’s up too
儲蓄成長並非真實的，消費卻也跟著提升

And the grasping for resources reveals there’s too few
但當人們開始尋求真正的經濟資源，他們就會發現其實資源有限

So the boom turns to bust as the interest rates rise
所以經濟成長就會隨著利率上升而破滅

With the costs of production, price signals were lies
當生產的成本上升，價格上升的信號就成為了一個謊言

The boom was a binge that’s a matter of fact
經濟成長只是一場狂歡，這就是事實

Now its devalued capital that makes up the slack.
而今貶值的資本將連本帶利償還一切

Whether it’s the late twenties or two thousand and five
無論是20世紀末，還是2005年

Booming bad investments, seems like they’d thrive
錯誤投資所帶來的經濟發展，看上去好像一片繁榮（，實則不然）

You must save to invest, don’t use the printing press
你必須先有儲蓄才能投資，别指望用印鈔機來解決問題

Or a bust will surely follow, an economy depressed
否則泡沫必會破滅，而經濟將會面臨蕭條

Your so-called “stimulus” will make things worse
你所謂的“經濟刺激”只會讓事情變得更糟糕

It’s just more of the same, more incentives perversed
它犯了更多同樣的錯誤，而且更加荒謬的激勵

And that credit crunch ain’t a liquidity trap
而且信用緊縮並不是流動性陷阱

Just a broke banking system, I’m done, that’s a wrap.
只是個糟糕的銀行機制。我說完了，到此結束吧！

We’ve been going back and forth for a century
我們這樣針鋒相對已經一世紀

[Keynes] I want to steer markets,
【凱因斯】我要引導市場，

[Hayak] I want them set free
【海耶克】我想讓市場自由，

There’s a boom and bust cycle and good reason to fear it
經濟總是有漲有跌，我們當然會畏懼

[Hayak] Blame low interest rates.
【海耶克】問題是在低利率

[Keynes] No… it’s the animal spirits
不…那是動物本能

“The ideas of economists and political philosophers, both when they are right and when they are wrong, are more powerful than is commonly understood. Indeed the world is ruled by little else. Practical men, who believe themselves to be quite exempt from any intellectual influence, are usually the slaves of some defunct economist.”
John Maynard Keynes
The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money
“無論是對是錯，經濟學家和政治哲學家們的想法，都比大眾所能理解的更加影響深遠。事實上，這個世界是被少數的政治家統治，那些總是認為自己是不會受學術世界的影響的人，然而很多時候，他們只不過是那些已故的經濟學家的奴隸而已。”
約翰‧梅納德‧凱因斯
《就業、利息與貨幣的一般理論》

“The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design.”
F A Hayek
The Fatal Conceit: The Errors of Socialism
“經濟學有一個特別的任務就是向人們證明，對於那些我們自以為可以設計好的機制，我們的知識其實遠遠不夠。”
弗里德里希‧奥古斯特‧海耶克
《致命的自負——社會主義的謬誤》

This entry was posted on 星期二, 三月 2nd, 2010 at 15:36:07 and is filed under 托福, 托福聽力. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.